This article was originally published on The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Disclosure information is available on the original site.
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Author: Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, Canada
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has been dropping hints for some time about the possibility of a provincial election this spring, if not sooner. Those hints are being reinforced by the pending arrival of $200 “rebate” cheques to Ontario residents from the province at a cost of nearly $3 billion.
Ford claims that he needs a clear mandate to deal with the newly inaugurated Donald Trump administration in the United States, specifically its threats to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian imports.
Ford’s Progressive Conservatives already hold a strong majority in the provincial legislature as a result of the June 2022 election. The province’s opposition parties have made it clear they’re prepared to co-operate on measures needed to respond to whatever Trump actually does, meaning there’s no obvious need for a provincial election on this issue.
Election not required
Timing is the key issue in this situation. The province would not normally be due for another election for nearly a year and a half — four years from the June 2022 election.
Ford has been musing about the possibility of an early election since last spring. In theory, an early election call might help Ford capitalize in his current lead in public opinion polls and his new profile as a leading spokesperson for Canada in the tariff dispute with the U.S.
An early election could put him ahead of further fallout from the Greenbelt scandal and the ongoing RCMP investigation into the land grab.
It could also pre-empt the impact of a variety of earlier decisions by the Ford government that are coming home to roost, ranging from the financial crisis in the post-secondary education sector, ongoing wider crises in health care, education, affordable (especially rental) housing and rising electricity costs.
Perhaps most importantly, it is widely believed Ford wants to go to the polls before a federal election — one that polls suggest the federal Conservatives will win.
Ontario voters have a record of voting for different parties at the federal and provincial levels, making a Conservative government in Ottawa a potentially unappealing scenario from Ford’s point of view.
Why it’s the wrong time
Beyond the issues of the expense of a premature and unnecessary election, it is difficult to imagine a worse time to call an early vote in Ontario given the need for a fully functioning provincial government to effectively respond to Trump’s threats.
If it’s determined to hold an early vote, the Ford government would probably want an election before a federal campaign begins. The current prorogation of federal Parliament is scheduled to end March 24. A confidence vote, which the current Liberal government is almost certain to lose regardless of who becomes leader, will follow shortly.
That will trigger a federal election, which, based on the minimum requirement for a 36-day campaign, will occur somewhere in early to mid-May.
This would mean an Ontario election would have to occur before the end of March. Given the minimum 28-day provincial election period, an election call could come by the end of February. The campaign would then take place mostly in March.
The problem with this timing is that Trump has suggested he’ll levy tariffs against Canadian exports some time between the beginning of February and April. This would mean that an Ontario election campaign — with all its accompanying distractions of political, media and public attention — would be taking place amid the most crucial moments in dealing the Trump administration’s actions on Canada-U.S. trade.
Running against Trump may seem politically attractive to Ford at the moment. But actually dealing with what Trump does will require the full energy and attention of Ontario’s government, working in conjunction with the federal government and other provinces. Canada cannot afford to have the focus of one of its key provincial leaders diverted into trying to win an unnecessary election at that point.
Cautionary precedent
For Ontario voters, there’s no shortage of decisions and actions taken by the Ford government that require a serious evaluation. But with no pressing constitutional or political rationale, the next two months are precisely the wrong time to trigger that process.
The Ford government may want to reflect on the fate of a high-profile majority government in Ontario that pursued what seemed like a good opportunity for an early election call. In 1990, three years into his mandate, Liberal Premier David Peterson called an early election — and got clobbered by Bob Rae’s New Democrats.
Peterson might have some advice for Ford on the wisdom of calling an early election.
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Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Disclosure information is available on the original site. Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/an-unnecessary-ontario-election-wont-help-canada-deal-with-donald-trump-248094
Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, Canada, The Conversation
